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The Butterfly Effect

In popular culture, the term “butterfly effect” is almost always misused. It has become synonymous with “leverage” – the idea of a small think that has a bing impact, with the implication that, like a lever, it can be manipulated to a desired end. This misses the point of [Edward] Lorenz’s insight. The reality is that small things in a complex system may have no effect or a massive one, and it is virtually impossible to know which will turn out to be the case.

Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams

Control And Reductionist Thinking

Attempts to control complex systems by using the kind of mechanical, reductionist thinking championed by thinkers from Newton to Taylor – breaking everything down into component parts, or optimizing individual elements – tend to be pointless at best or destructive at worst.

Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams

On Complexity And Prediction

Complexity produces a fundamentally different situation from the complicated challenges of the past; complicated problems required great effort, but ultimately yielded to prediction. Complexity means that, in spite of our increased abilities to track and measure, the world has become, in many ways, vastly less predictable.

Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams